MIAMI -- Pope John Paul's inspiring visit to Fidel Castro's Cuba
this week is being compared to his historic intercession in Poland in
1979, which helped trigger the end of half a dozen repressive regimes
across Eastern Europe.
While there are obvious similarities between Commandante Castro
and Poland's Gen. Wojciech Jaruzelski and the communist dictatorship that
was Poland and the communist dictatorship that is Cuba today, there are
also important differences which may delay and complicate the charming
Caribbean nation's transition from political and economic lunacy to
democracy and capitalism.
Everyone marvels at how the Cold War evaporated because the
former Soviet Union and its Warsaw Pact satellites disintegrated
peacefully.
Few take into account that the biggest reason violence didn't
happen is that the grey emperors of the politburos never actually gave up
power. They simply threw away their threadbare polyester suits for fancy
western threads.
From Bucharest to Bishkek in Central Asia, most of the dynamic
new capitalist leaders are actually old Marxist-Leninist leaders without
the foggiest notion of how to run a modern country. Since reinventing
themselves as "biznezzmen" they have merrily plundered their countries
with an even greater vengeance. Helping make their every dream come true
have been their old friends in the secret police who now provide what is
called "mafia muscle."
Much as they might like such a gilded escape hatch, it will be
much harder for the greying revolutionaries in Havana and the colossal
security apparatus which comforts them to achieve such a miracle for
themselves when the decrepit Cuban economy eventually forces them into the
history books.
This isn't because the Cuban political elite is more noble or
more devoted to the old ideas and ideals than their old pals in Eastern
Europe, who are now almost all gazillionaires. It is because in Eastern
Europe there was no dynamic home-born capitalist class ready to step in
and help out.
Cuba's destiny will inevitably be shaped by an army of
patriotic, aggressive, well-financed, western-educated Cuban success
stories now living in exile in southern Florida. It is impossible that
these exiles will meekly stand aside and let Castro's cronies steal all
the loot and glory when the dictator dies.
Regime detested
Rather, given how deeply these expatriates detest Castro's
regime and how many Cubans in Cuba are ambivalent about the fate of those
who turned their island into a police state, the present ruling class will
find themselves in a real jam. So, perforce, there is a much greater
chance for conflict in post-Castro Cuba than there was in post-Soviet
Eastern Europe.
Another telling and largely untold factor in this combustible
mix is that aside from sugar cane and some dazzling real estate with great
tourism potential, there aren't nearly as many spoils to divide in
resource-poor Cuba as there were in the former Soviet Union and its
satellites.
As I quickly and repeatedly discovered while driving the length
and breadth of Cuba last winter, the reality laid bare by the end of
massive Soviet fuel subsidies and overly generous payments for Cuban sugar
is that as gorgeous as it is, and as vivacious and generous as its people
are, Castro's nirvana barely functions.
New refugees
There are implications for Canada in the long looming crisis
between the exiles and those now in charge in Cuba. Instead of remaining
as presidents, owners and factory bosses in the new Cuba, as the leaders
in formerly communist Eastern Europe have done, the present Cuban ruling
class may well become refugees themselves.
Given their behavior and their political convictions, it is most
unlikely the U.S. will be interested in these new "boat people." Hamstrung
by its support of the Cuban dictatorship, Canada (and perhaps Spain) could
become the favored haven of some of the last souls on Earth running a
communist police state.