HAVANA, JULY 3, 1996.- A very hot summer is being predicted for Havana, not for the high temperatures which are reached during these months in the tropics, but of a summer, or better yet, an upcoming August, of political heat. When two Cubans meet, the usual things to talk about are the shortages experienced by the families, and this is just the routine. Now, the rumors in Havana are of a massive escape to Florida.
There are several versions. One is that the massive exit of rafters will be allowed like last August. Another version is that the Guantanamo base is being conditioned for another massive exodus. Another still is that Florida exiles will be authorized to come in their yachts to pick up their families. There are doubtful and enthusiasts, and among them, even those that, due to their age or health, will not attempt to leave in a precarious raft.
There are rumors in Havana that they are expecting street protests. Nobody knows where these rumors originate, and they are not being refuted. None of this can be foreign to Castro. However, the press ignores them. There are no official warnings. What about the emigration agreement with Washington? Are these rumors officially encouraged or have they spontaneously occurred? If the latter, what can we surmise from the expectations of Cubans?
What about if they are merely trial balloons--- which is a political propaganda term-- to measure public opinion? The truth is that they have spread like wildfires. Is it perhaps a projection of the unconscious universe of Cubans? Or perhaps Havana will blame Helms-Burton? For sure Cubans have stopped being adapted to communism. We can't forget what happened on August in 1994. And there's a current around the disenchantment of the dissidents within the ranks, which goes beyond the human rights groups. It is essentially economic, due to a policy destined to not leaving any room for democracy.
In Havana, lessons for next August must be learned. But, when can we expect some real hope? That one, which Castro stubbornly refuses to read in the writing and the spirit of the Bariloche Summit. Castro signed it. Why then do they continue to shout obsolete communist slogans which perpetuate the constant shortages? Or is it that, for the power elite, that's their only hope? Such obsession is what makes the political temperatures rise, even if August, without a doubt, is a special month in the political history of Cuba. Those who wish for an orderly transition, wish for that to stay as a rumor.
Translated for CubaNet
by Lourdes Arriete