2008 Cuba/US Transition Poll

This survey was done by the Institute for Public Opinion Research of Florida International University. 800 randomly selected Cuban-American respondents were polled in Miami-Dade County, Florida. 500 interviews were done to land-line phones and 300 to cell phones. The survey was done in Spanish and English with all bilingual interviewers. Interviews were completed on December 1, 2008. The margin of error for the overall poll is plus or minus 3.6%.

The results reported here are from the tabulations of single response questions. Results from questions involving multiple responses and coding of open-end responses will be released on December 8, 2008 at Florida International University.

This 2008 Cuba/US Transition Poll has some questions that have been tracked over the years in the FIU Cuba Poll. To compare results from these questions with past FIU Cuba Polls, see http://www.fiu.edu/~ipor/cuba8/ , and in particular http://www.fiu.edu/~ipor/cuba8/CubaComp.htm .

The 2008 Cuba/US Transition Poll was funded by the Brookings Institution and the Cuba Study Group.

This page (http://www.fiu.edu/~ipor/cuba-t/) will be updated as we continue to analyze poll data. For more information please call the director of the Institute for Public Opinion Research, Dr. Hugh Gladwin, at 305-919-4718 or email him at gladwin@fiu.edu.

Go to the bottom of this page or p 20 of the PDF for the full questionnaire.

Tables

QUESTIONS AS ASKED ARE IN BOLD TYPE ABOVE EACH TABLE

Cuba-T.pdf PDF SAME CONTENT AS TABLES BELOW

When do you think that major political changes are likely to occur in Cuba?
	WITHIN ONE YEAR	7%
	IN TWO TO FIVE YEARS	29%
	IN SIX TO TEN YEARS	14%
	OVER TEN YEARS	10%
	NEVER	15%
	NEVER AS LONG AS A CASTRO IS IN CHARGE	25%

When do you think that major political changes are likely to occur in Cuba? by three age groups
		age categories
		18-44	45-64	65 and older
	WITHIN ONE YEAR	7%	5%	7%
	IN TWO TO FIVE YEARS	30%	29%	24%
	IN SIX TO TEN YEARS	17%	12%	4%
	OVER TEN YEARS	11%	9%	8%
	NEVER	11%	16%	27%
	NEVER AS LONG AS A CASTRO IS IN CHARGE	23%	27%	30%

When do you think that major political changes are likely to occur in Cuba? by year left Cuba
		Three groups by year left Cuba
		before 1980	1980-1998	after 1998	born in the US or a country other than Cuba
	WITHIN ONE YEAR	7%	8%	7%	5%
	IN TWO TO FIVE YEARS	26%	24%	34%	32%
	IN SIX TO TEN YEARS	10%	9%	12%	29%
	OVER TEN YEARS	9%	10%	7%	16%
	NEVER	26%	14%	14%	7%
	NEVER AS LONG AS A CASTRO IS IN CHARGE	22%	34%	26%	11%

When do you think that major political changes are likely to occur in Cuba? by whether registered to vote
		registered to vote
		not registered to vote	registered to vote
	WITHIN ONE YEAR	10%	6%
	IN TWO TO FIVE YEARS	32%	28%
	IN SIX TO TEN YEARS	11%	15%
	OVER TEN YEARS	8%	12%
	NEVER	23%	16%
	NEVER AS LONG AS A CASTRO IS IN CHARGE	17%	22%

When Fidel Castro was replaced by Raul Castro as Cuba's president, how do you think that affected the possibility for real political change in Cuba?
	LESS LIKELY	24%
	MORE LIKELY	11%
	NO DIFFERENCE	65%

When Fidel Castro was replaced by Raul Castro as Cuba's president, how do you think that affected the possibility for real political change in Cuba? by three age groups
		age categories
		18-44	45-64	65 and older
	LESS LIKELY	24%	21%	25%
	MORE LIKELY	13%	10%	9%
	NO DIFFERENCE	62%	69%	67%

When Fidel Castro was replaced by Raul Castro as Cuba's president, how do you think that affected the possibility for real political change in Cuba? by year left Cuba
		Three groups by year left Cuba
		before 1980	1980-1998	after 1998	born in the US or a country other than Cuba
	LESS LIKELY	24%	22%	26%	24%
	MORE LIKELY	10%	13%	7%	19%
	NO DIFFERENCE	66%	66%	67%	58%

When Fidel Castro was replaced by Raul Castro as Cuba's president, how do you think that affected the possibility for real political change in Cuba? by whether registered to vote
		registered to vote
		not registered to vote	registered to vote
	LESS LIKELY	33%	21%
	MORE LIKELY	13%	13%
	NO DIFFERENCE	54%	66%

Would you favor or oppose ending current restrictions on sending money to Cuba for Cuban Americans?
	FAVOR	65%
	OPPOSE	35%

Would you favor or oppose ending current restrictions on sending money to Cuba for Cuban Americans? by three age groups
		age categories
		18-44	45-64	65 and older
	FAVOR	70%	64%	55%
	OPPOSE	30%	36%	45%

Would you favor or oppose ending current restrictions on sending money to Cuba for Cuban Americans? by year left Cuba
		Three groups by year left Cuba
		before 1980	1980-1998	after 1998	born in the US or a country other than Cuba
	FAVOR	50%	68%	78%	58%
	OPPOSE	50%	32%	22%	42%

Would you favor or oppose ending current restrictions on sending money to Cuba for Cuban Americans? by whether registered to vote
		registered to vote
		not registered to vote	registered to vote
	FAVOR	69%	54%
	OPPOSE	31%	46%

Would you favor or oppose ending current restrictions on travel to Cuba for Cuban Americans?
	FAVOR	66%
	OPPOSE	34%

Would you favor or oppose ending current restrictions on travel to Cuba for Cuban Americans? by three age groups
		age categories
		18-44	45-64	65 and older
	FAVOR	71%	64%	53%
	OPPOSE	29%	36%	47%

Would you favor or oppose ending current restrictions on travel to Cuba for Cuban Americans? by year left Cuba
		Three groups by year left Cuba
		before 1980	1980-1998	after 1998	born in the US or a country other than Cuba
	FAVOR	48%	68%	78%	62%
	OPPOSE	52%	32%	22%	38%

Would you favor or oppose ending current restrictions on travel to Cuba for Cuban Americans? by whether registered to vote
		registered to vote
		not registered to vote	registered to vote
	FAVOR	63%	56%
	OPPOSE	37%	44%

What about for all Americans? Would you favor or oppose ending current restrictions on travel to Cuba for all Americans?
	FAVOR	67%
	OPPOSE	33%

What about for all Americans? Would you favor or oppose ending current restrictions on travel to Cuba for all Americans? by three age groups
		age categories
		18-44	45-64	65 and older
	FAVOR	75%	64%	51%
	OPPOSE	25%	36%	49%

What about for all Americans? Would you favor or oppose ending current restrictions on travel to Cuba for all Americans? by year left Cuba
		Three groups by year left Cuba
		before 1980	1980-1998	after 1998	born in the US or a country other than Cuba
	FAVOR	49%	67%	80%	67%
	OPPOSE	51%	33%	20%	33%

What about for all Americans? Would you favor or oppose ending current restrictions on travel to Cuba for all Americans? by whether registered to vote
		registered to vote
		not registered to vote	registered to vote
	FAVOR	63%	58%
	OPPOSE	37%	42%

Overall, do you think the U.S. embargo of Cuba has worked very well, well, not very well, or not at all?
	VERY WELL	9%
	WELL	12%
	NOT VERY WELL	23%
	NOT AT ALL	56%

Overall, do you think the U.S. embargo of Cuba has worked very well, well, not very well, or not at all? by three age groups
		age categories
		18-44	45-64	65 and older
	VERY WELL	6%	10%	16%
	WELL	10%	13%	16%
	NOT VERY WELL	23%	23%	22%
	NOT AT ALL	61%	54%	46%

Overall, do you think the U.S. embargo of Cuba has worked very well, well, not very well, or not at all? by year left Cuba
		Three groups by year left Cuba
		before 1980	1980-1998	after 1998	born in the US or a country other than Cuba
	VERY WELL	15%	11%	4%	6%
	WELL	17%	12%	4%	20%
	NOT VERY WELL	24%	18%	23%	29%
	NOT AT ALL	44%	59%	68%	45%

Overall, do you think the U.S. embargo of Cuba has worked very well, well, not very well, or not at all? by whether registered to vote
		registered to vote
		not registered to vote	registered to vote
	VERY WELL	7%	13%
	WELL	15%	15%
	NOT VERY WELL	23%	23%
	NOT AT ALL	55%	49%

Do you favor or oppose continuing the U.S. embargo of Cuba?
	FAVOR	45%
	OPPOSE	55%

Do you favor or oppose continuing the U.S. embargo of Cuba? by three age groups
		age categories
		18-44	45-64	65 and older
	FAVOR	35%	47%	68%
	OPPOSE	65%	53%	32%

Do you favor or oppose continuing the U.S. embargo of Cuba? by year left Cuba
		Three groups by year left Cuba
		before 1980	1980-1998	after 1998	born in the US or a country other than Cuba
	FAVOR	65%	43%	29%	48%
	OPPOSE	35%	57%	71%	52%

Do you favor or oppose continuing the U.S. embargo of Cuba? by whether registered to vote
		registered to vote
		not registered to vote	registered to vote
	FAVOR	47%	56%
	OPPOSE	53%	44%

Do you favor or oppose the U.S. re-establishing diplomatic relations with Cuba?
	FAVOR	65%
	OPPOSE	35%

Do you favor or oppose the U.S. re-establishing diplomatic relations with Cuba? by three age groups
		age categories
		18-44	45-64	65 and older
	FAVOR	77%	60%	42%
	OPPOSE	23%	40%	58%

Do you favor or oppose the U.S. re-establishing diplomatic relations with Cuba? by year left Cuba
		Three groups by year left Cuba
		before 1980	1980-1998	after 1998	born in the US or a country other than Cuba
	FAVOR	45%	63%	80%	68%
	OPPOSE	55%	37%	20%	32%

Do you favor or oppose the U.S. re-establishing diplomatic relations with Cuba? by whether registered to vote
		registered to vote
		not registered to vote	registered to vote
	FAVOR	65%	56%
	OPPOSE	35%	44%

Should the U.S. government and the Cuban government engage in direct talks about migration and other critical questions?
	YES	79%
	NO	21%

Should the U.S. government and the Cuban government engage in direct talks about migration and other critical questions? by three age groups
		age categories
		18-44	45-64	65 and older
	YES	88%	74%	62%
	NO	12%	26%	38%

Should the U.S. government and the Cuban government engage in direct talks about migration and other critical questions? by year left Cuba
		Three groups by year left Cuba
		before 1980	1980-1998	after 1998	born in the US or a country other than Cuba
	YES	62%	80%	90%	80%
	NO	38%	20%	10%	20%

Should the U.S. government and the Cuban government engage in direct talks about migration and other critical questions? by whether registered to vote
		registered to vote
		not registered to vote	registered to vote
	YES	85%	72%
	NO	15%	28%

Are you a U.S. citizen?
	YES	60%
	NO	40%

Are you a U.S. citizen? by three age groups
		age categories
		18-44	45-64	65 and older
	YES	47%	65%	84%
	NO	53%	35%	16%

Are you a U.S. citizen? by year left Cuba
		Three groups by year left Cuba
		before 1980	1980-1998	after 1998	born in the US or a country other than Cuba
	YES	94%	62%	14%	89%
	NO	6%	38%	86%	11%

Are you registered to vote?
	not registered to vote	24%
	registered to vote	76%

Are you registered to vote? by three age groups
		age categories
		18-44	45-64	65 and older
	not registered to vote	28%	27%	13%
	registered to vote	72%	73%	87%

Are you registered to vote? by year left Cuba
		Three groups by year left Cuba
		before 1980	1980-1998	after 1998	born in the US or a country other than Cuba
	not registered to vote	5%	24%	68%	17%
	registered to vote	95%	76%	32%	83%

Are you registered as a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or with some other party?
	Republican	52%
	Independent	21%
	Democrat	27%

Are you registered as a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or with some other party? by three age groups
		age categories
		18-44	45-64	65 and older
	Republican	42%	50%	66%
	Independent	27%	21%	13%
	Democrat	30%	29%	21%

Are you registered as a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or with some other party? by year left Cuba
		Three groups by year left Cuba
		before 1980	1980-1998	after 1998	born in the US or a country other than Cuba
	Republican	63%	50%	38%	42%
	Independent	16%	21%	44%	24%
	Democrat	21%	30%	18%	35%

In the presidential election, did you vote for John McCain or Barack Obama, or did you not vote for either?
	McCain	62%
	Obama	38%

In the presidential election, did you vote for John McCain or Barack Obama, or did you not vote for either? by three age groups
		age categories
		18-44	45-64	65 and older
	McCain	49%	56%	80%
	Obama	51%	44%	20%

In the presidential election, did you vote for John McCain or Barack Obama, or did you not vote for either? by year left Cuba
		Three groups by year left Cuba
		before 1980	1980-1998	after 1998	born in the US or a country other than Cuba
	McCain	74%	56%	58%	49%
	Obama	26%	44%	42%	51%

In voting for the US Congress House of Representatives, did you vote for the republican or democrat in your district, or was the representative already chosen for your district?
	Republican candidate	72%
	Democratic candidate	28%

In voting for the US Congress House of Representatives, did you vote for the republican or democrat in your district, or was the representative already chosen for your district? by three age groups
		age categories
		18-44	45-64	65 and older
	Republican candidate	66%	68%	83%
	Democratic candidate	34%	32%	17%

In voting for the US Congress House of Representatives, did you vote for the republican or democrat in your district, or was the representative already chosen for your district? by year left Cuba
		Three groups by year left Cuba
		before 1980	1980-1998	after 1998	born in the US or a country other than Cuba
	Republican candidate	83%	65%	67%	62%
	Democratic candidate	17%	35%	33%	38%

Full Questionnaire

[Q1] Hello, I'm __________ calling from Florida International University. We are conducting a study of issues important to the Cuban community in Miami-Dade County. Your household has been randomly selected for this confidential poll. Is anyone in your household of Cuban descent and 18 years or older who could answer my questions? [IF YES] Could I interview you? If this is not a good time we could call back to do the interview when it is more convenient.

Hola, Mi nombre es _________________le estoy llamando de la Universidad Internacional de la Florida. Estamos llevando a cabo un estudio sobre asuntos importantes para la comunidad cubana del condado de Miami-Dade. Su hogar ha sido seleccionado al azar para esta encuesta confidencial. Hay alguien en su hogar de descendencia cubana, de 18 años o mayor, que pudiera contestar mis preguntas? (IF YES) Podría entrevistarlo? Si este no es un buen momento, nosotros lo(a) podríamos llamar nuevamente para hacer la encuesta cuando sea mas conveniente para usted.
1 CONTINUE
2 NOT CUBAN
3 GO TO DISPOSITIONS

[Q2] This call may be monitored for quality control purposes. Over the past few years, people have been talking about the possibility of political changes bringing democracy in Cuba. When do you think that major political changes are likely to occur in Cuba? Would you say within one year, in two to five years, in six to ten years, over ten years, or never?

Esta llamada puede ser monitoreada para control de calidad. Aquí en los últimos años se ha hablado sobre la posibilidad de cambios políticos en Cuba. Cuándo cree usted que es probable que ocurran dichos cambios? Diría usted que en este año, de dos a cinco años, de seis a diez años, más de diez años, o nunca? [USE RESPONSE 6 ONLY IF PERSON INSISTS ON IT]
1 WITHIN ONE YEAR
2 IN TWO TO FIVE YEARS
3 IN SIX TO TEN YEARS
4 OVER TEN YEARS
5 NEVER
6 NEVER AS LONG AS A CASTRO IS IN CHARGE
7 DON'T KNOW
8 DON'T CARE/DON'T WANT TO RESPOND

[Q3] When Fidel Castro was replaced by Raul Castro as Cuba's president, how do you think that affected the possibility for real political change in Cuba? Do you think it made real change less likely to happen, more likely, or did it not make any difference?

Cuando Fidel Castro fue reemplazado por Raúl Castro como presidente de Cuba, como cree usted que ésto afectó la posibilidad de un verdadero cambio político en Cuba? Usted cree que la posibilidad de un verdadero cambio sea posiblemente muy poco, o posiblemente mucho, o no habrá ninguno.
1 LESS LIKELY
2 MORE LIKELY
3 NO DIFFERENCE

[Q4A] Would you favor or oppose ending current restrictions on sending money to Cuba for Cuban Americans?

Estaría usted a favor o en contra, de terminar con las restricciones actuales de envíos de dinero a Cuba para los cubanos-americanos?
1 FAVOR
2 OPPOSE
3 DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE

[Q4B] Would you favor or oppose ending current restrictions on travel to Cuba for Cuban Americans?

Estaría usted a favor o en contra, de terminar con las restricciones actuales de viaje a Cuba para los cubanos-americanos?
1 FAVOR
2 OPPOSE
3 DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE

[Q5] What about for all Americans? Would you favor or oppose ending current restrictions on travel to Cuba for all Americans?

Estaría usted a favor o en contra, de terminar con las restricciones actuales de viajes a Cuba para todos los americanos?
1 FAVOR
2 OPPOSE
3 DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE

[Q6] Overall, do you think the U.S. embargo of Cuba has worked very well, well, not very well, or not at all?

En términos generales, cree usted que el embargo norteamericano a Cuba ha dado muy buen resultado, buen resultado, no muy bueno, o ninguno en absoluto?
1 VERY WELL
2 WELL
3 NOT VERY WELL
4 NOT AT ALL
5 DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE

[Q7] Do you favor or oppose continuing the U.S. embargo of Cuba?

Está usted a favor o en contra que continúe el embargo a Cuba?
1 FAVOR
2 OPPOSE
3 DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE

[Q8] Do you favor or oppose the U.S. re-establishing diplomatic relations with Cuba?

Está usted a favor o en contra del restablecimiento de las relaciones diplomáticas entre los Estados Unidos y Cuba?
1 FAVOR
2 OPPOSE
3 DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE

[Q9] Should the U.S. government and the Cuban government engage in direct talks about migration and other critical questions?

Debería el gobierno de los Estados Unidos y el de Cuba establecer conversaciones directas sobre inmigración y otros asuntos críticos?
1 YES
2 NO
3 DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE

[Q10] Now, I want to ask you a few questions about yourself. Were you born in Cuba, the Miami area, elsewhere in the U.S., or in some other country?

Ahora, quisiera hacerle algunas preguntas sobre usted. Nació usted en Cuba, en el área de Miami, en alguna otra parte de Estados Unidos, o en algún otro pais?
1 CUBA
2 MIAMI AREA
3 ELSEWHERE IN U.S.
4 OTHER COUNTRY, SPECIFY [ASK WHICH COUNTRY]
5 DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE

[Q11] Were your parents born in Cuba, the U.S. or somewhere else?

Nacieron sus padres en Cuba, en Estados Unidos, o en algún otro pais?
1 CUBA
2 U.S.
3 ONE PARENT BORN IN CUBA, ONE ELSEWHERE
4 SOMEWHERE ELSE
5 DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE

[Q12] In what year did you come to South Florida?

En qué año vino usted al sur de la Florida? [9999 = NO ANSWER]
[numeric, range: 0-999]

[Q13] Could you please tell me how old you are?

Por favor, Podría decirme, cuántos años tiene usted? [999=DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE]
[numeric, range: 0-999]

[Q14] What is the highest grade of school you have completed?

Cuál es el grado más alto de educación que usted ha completado?
1 GRADE SCHOOL (1-8)
2 SOME HIGH SCHOOL (9-11)
3 HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATE
4 SOME COLLEGE (INCLUDES ASSOCIATE DEGREE)
5 TECHNICAL OR VOCATIONAL SCHOOL
6 COLLEGE GRADUATE (FOUR YEAR DEGREE ONLY)
7 COMPLETED GRADUATE DEGREE (MA, PHD, MD)
8 DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE

[Q15] What is your zip code?

Cuál es su código postal? [39999 = DID NOT SAY OR NO RESPONSE]
[numeric, range: 0-999]

[Q16] Now, we don't want your exact income, but could you tell me if your total annual household income -- from all members of your household - before taxes is...

Ahora, no queremos saber su ingreso exacto, pero podría decirme si el total del ingreso anual de todos los miembros de su hogar,- antes de descontar impuestos -, es de... [CHOOSE LOWER: FOR EXAMPLE, IF RESPONDENT SAYS $30,000, CHOOSE 2 INSTEAD OF 3;$50,000, CHOOSE 3 INSTEAD OF 4]
1 under $20,000?
2 $20,000 - $30,000?
3 $30,000 - $50,000?
4 $50,000 - $70,000?
5 more than $70,000?
6 DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE

[Q17] Are you a U.S. citizen?

Es usted ciudadano norteamericano?
1 YES
2 NO
3 DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE

[Q18] Are you registered to vote?

Está usted inscrito para votar?
1 YES
2 NO
3 DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE

[Q19] Are you registered as a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or with some other party?

Está usted inscrito como republicano, demócrata, independiente o con algún otro partido?
1 REPUBLICAN
2 DEMOCRAT
3 INDEPENDENT
4 OTHER, SPECIFY
5 DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE

[Q20] In the presidential election, did you vote for John McCain or Barack Obama, or did you not vote for either?

Durante las elecciones presidenciales, usted votó por John McCain o por Barack Obama, o usted no votó por ninguno de los dos?
1 MCCAIN
2 OBAMA
3 DID NOT VOTE
4 THIRD PARTY CANDIDATE
5 DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE

[Q21] What were the most important reasons why you voted for McCain? [INTERVIEWER DO NOT READ, CHECK ALL THAT APPLY]

Cuáles fueron las razones más importantes por las cuales usted votó por McCain?
[multiple response]
1 EXPERIENCE MORE THAN OBAMA
2 LESS LIBERAL THAN OBAMA
3 POSITION ON CUBA
4 WON'T RAISE TAXES
5 DON'T TRUST, LIKE, ETC OBAMA
6 OBAMA'S NAME OR RACE
7 OTHER, SPECIFY
8 DON'T KNOW, NO RESPONSE

[Q22] What were the most important reasons why you voted for Obama?

Cuáles fueron las razones más importantes por las cuales usted votó por Obama? [INTERVIEWER DO NOT READ, CHECK ALL THAT APPLY]
[multiple response]
1 TIME FOR A CHANGE FROM BUSH POLICIES
2 LESS CONSERVATIVE THAN MCCAIN
3 POSITION ON CUBA
4 POSITION ON THE US ECONOMY
5 PALIN VP CHOICE
6 PERSONAL CHARACTERISTICS OF OBAMA
7 OTHER, SPECIFY
8 DON'T KNOW, NO RESPONSE

[Q23] In voting for the US Congress House of Representatives, did you vote for the republican or democrat in your district, or was the representative already chosen for your district?

Cuando votó por el Congreso de Estados Unidos, votó usted por los republicanos o demócratas en su distrito, o el representante estaba ya escogido en su distrito?
1 REPUBLICAN
2 DEMOCRAT
3 DID NOT VOTE/REP ALREADY CHOSEN
4 DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE

[Q24] What is the most important thing Barack Obama needs to do with regard to Cuba when he becomes president?

Qué es lo más importante que Barack Obama necesita hacer con relación a Cuba, cuando se posesione en la presidencia?
[open-end]

[Q25] Do you have any comments you would like me to write down?

Tiene usted algún comentario adicional que le gustaría que yo escribiera?
1 YES
2 NO

[Q26] COMMENT
[open-end]

[Q27] [INTERVIEWER RECORD GENDER]
1 MALE
2 FEMALE