Cuban Research Institute
Institute for Public Opinion Research
Center for Labor Research and Studies
Florida International University

All question texts, references results from data, and other information on this site (c) 2000 Florida International University

Preliminary results, FIU/Cuba Poll

2000 FIU/Cuba Poll: comparison of three samples




(VALID % ONLY)

POLICY QUESTIONS

CHANGE


1.      Over the past few years, people have been talking about the possibility of political changes in
Cuba. When do you think that major political changes are likely to occur in Cuba? Would you
say within one year, in two to five years, in six to ten years, over ten years, or never?
 
Local Cuban

Local Non-Cuban

National

Within 1 year

9.7%

9.1%

3.5%

in 2 to 5 years

33.1%

37.5%

35.3%

in 6 to 10 years

11.8%

15.6%

27.9%

over ten years

14.7%

16.6%

17.9%

never

28.2%

17.9%

12.1%

Donít care

2.5%

3.3%

3.2%

SCALE OF QUESTIONS


2.      First, allow companies to sell medicine to Cuba, do you strongly favor, mostly
favor, mostly oppose, or strongly oppose this?
 
Local Cuban

Local Non-Cuban

National

Strongly Favor

44.3%

59.5%

38.4%


Mostly Favor

21.8%

28.9%

51.4%


Mostly Oppose

6.6%

3.6%

4.7%


Strongly Oppose

27.4%

8.0%

5.5%


3.      Allowing U.S. companies to sell food to Cuba. Do you strongly favor, mostly favor,
mostly oppose, or strongly oppose this?
 
Local Cuban

Local Non-Cuban

National

Strongly Favor

38.4%

56.9%

39.7%


Mostly Favor

17.9%

26.2%

46.6%


Mostly Oppose

8.9%

6.8%

7.0%


Strongly Oppose

34.8%

10.1%

6.7%


4.      Supporting direct U.S. military action to overthrow the Cuban government. Do you
strongly favor, mostly favor, mostly oppose, or strongly oppose this?
 
Local Cuban

Local Non-Cuban

National

Strongly Favor

49.4%

26.0%

8.1%


Mostly Favor

11.0%

13.9%

9.8%


Mostly Oppose

10.0%

16.1%

29.0%


Strongly Oppose

29.6%

44.0%

53.1%


5.      Supporting military action by the exile community to overthrow the Cuban
Government. Do you strongly favor, mostly favor, mostly oppose, or strongly
oppose this?
 
Local Cuban

Local Non-Cuban

National

Strongly Favor

55.5%

27.6%

5.8%


Mostly Favor

13.5%

17.7%

16.0%


Mostly Oppose

9.6%

18.2%

29.9%


Strongly Oppose

21.4%

36.5%

48.3%


6.      Supporting human rights groups inside Cuba. Do you strongly favor, mostly favor,
mostly oppose, or strongly oppose this?
 
Local Cuban

Local Non-Cuban

National

Strongly Favor

79.9%

66.5%

43.6%


Mostly Favor

14.7%

25.9%

39.9%


Mostly Oppose

1.9%

2.6%

11.2%


Strongly Oppose

3.5%

5.0%

5.3%


7.      Establishing a national dialogue among Cuban exiles, Cuban dissidents, and
representatives of the Cuban government. Do you strongly favor, mostly favor,
mostly oppose, or strongly oppose this?
 
Local Cuban

Local Non-Cuban

National

Strongly Favor

34.4%

49.0%

29.3%


Mostly Favor

17.2%

29.6%

50.9%


Mostly Oppose

11.8%

8.7%

12.0%


Strongly Oppose

36.6%

12.8%

7.8%

EMBARGO QUESTIONS


8.      Prohibiting U.S companies from doing business with Cuba. Do you Strongly approve,
mostly approve, mostly disapprove, or strongly disapprove?
 
Local Cuban

Local Non-Cuban

National

Strongly Approve

37.1%

23.5%

12.4%


Mostly Approve

10.5%

14.7%

22.4%


Mostly Disapprove

12.3%

14.8%

33.2%


Strongly Disapprove

40.1%

37.1%

31.9%


9.      Overall, do you think the U.S. embargo of Cuba has worked very well, well, not very
well, or not at all?
 
Local Cuban

Local Non-Cuban

National

Very Well

8.4%

4.5%

3.7%


Well

17.3%

13.4%

30.5%


Not Very Well

33.4%

42.9%

44.05


Not At All

40.9%

39.2%

21.8%


10.   Do you favor or oppose continuing the U.S. embargo of Cuba?
 
Local Cuban

Local Non-Cuban

National

Favor

62.4%

39.1%

42.6%


Oppose

37.6%

60.9%

57.4%

TRAVEL


11.   Should unrestricted travel from the U.S. to Cuba be allowed or not?
 
Local Cuban

Local Non-Cuban

National

Yes, allowed

52.8%

74.8%

63.2%


No, not allowed

47.2%

25.2%

36.8%

U.S. INVOLVMENT


12.   Immediately after Fidel and Raul Castro leave power, do you think the United States
should be very involved in what happens politically in Cuba, somewhat involved, or not
involved at all?
 
Local Cuban

Local Non-Cuban

National

Very involved

44.9%

26.6%

19.8%


Somewhat involved

33.5%

38.9%

50.7%


Not involved at all

21.6%

34.5%

29.5%

POLITICS AFTER FIDEL


13.   Immediately after Fidel and Raul Castro leave power, which do you think would be
better: that the next president of Cuba be someone now living in Cuba, or be someone
from the exile community?
 
Local Cuban

Local Non-Cuban

National

Someone in Cuba

48.0%

57.6%

60.2%


Exile Community

26.6%

28.8%

21.5%


Either

23.2%

9.8%

16.6%


Neither

2.3%

3.8%

1.7%


14.   In your opinion, are there any Cuban-American politicians or individuals who will play a
major role in Cuba when the transition to a democratic system occurs?
 
Local Cuban

Local Non-Cuban

Yes

64.7%

58.2%


No

35.3%

41.8%


Lincoln Diaz-Balart

41.7%

31.8%


Jorge Mas Santos

10.3%

14.1%


Alex Penelas

8.3%

35.3%



 



 



 




 



LOCAL IMPACT


1.      In political elections, how important is a candidate's position on Cuba in determining
your vote - would you say it is very important, moderately important, not very
important, or not at all important?
 
Local Cuban

Local Non-Cuban

National

Very Important

56.4%

32.3%

11.8%


Moderately Important

21.0%

30.1%

34.8%


Not Very Important

8.8%

14.5%

34.8%


Not At All Important

13.8%

23.0%

18.7%


2.      In Miami right now, do you feel that all points of view on how to deal with the Castro
regime are being heard or do you feel that some views are not being heard?
 
Local Cuban

Local Non-Cuban

All Views Are Heard

20.7%

32.5%


Some Views Are Not Heard

79.3%

67.5%


3.      Some people argue that musical groups that come from Cuba, such as Los Van Van,
should not be allowed to perform in Miami. Do you agree or disagree with this opinion?
 
Local Cuban

Local Non-Cuban

Agree

45.3%

14.6%


Disagree

54.7%

85.4%


4.      Miami-Dade County had an ordinance that prevented the use of County funds to be
used for events that include artists from Cuba. Did you agree or disagree with this
policy?
 
Local Cuban

Local Non-Cuban

Agree

48.5%

24.55


Disagree

51.5%

75.5%



IMMIGRATION


1.      What if Cuba changed to a democratic form of government. How likely is it that you
would return to Cuba to live - would you say very likely, somewhat likely, not very
likely, or not at all likely?
 
Local Cuban

Very Likely

21.9%


Somewhat Likely

17.0%


Not Very Likely

19.1%


Not At All Likely

42.0%


2.      If you have to choose only one reason, do you think the primary reason people want to come
from Cuba to the U.S. is for economic reasons or is due to lack of freedom in Cuba?
 
Local Cuban

Local Non-Cuban

National

Economic Reasons

25.5%

41.6%

33.2%


Lack of Freedom

53.9%

39.0%

45.0%


Insist on Both Being Equally Important

20.5%

19.4%

21.9%


3.      Currently the United States allows 20,000 Cubans per year to come to the United States
to live. In general, do you agree or disagree with this migration policy?
 
Local Cuban

Local Non-Cuban

National

Agree

80.1%

52.8%

54.9%


Disagree

19.9%

47.2%

45.1%


4.      As it stands, Cubans who leave by raft or boat are sent back to Cuba if they are
intercepted before they reach U.S. soil. If they do reach U.S. soil they are allowed to
stay in the U.S. Do you agree or disagree with this policy?
 
Local Cuban

Local Non-Cuban

National

Agree

33.9%

43.5%

37.4%


Disagree

66.1%

56.5%

62.6%

ELIAN GONZALEZ


1.      Now I would like to ask you a few questions about the Elian Gonzalez situation. How
closely did you follow the news about the story? Did you follow it very closely,
somewhat closely, not very closely, or did you not pay any attention to it at all?
 
Local Cuban

Local Non-Cuban

National

Very Closely

72.9%

55.0%

26.9%


Moderately Closely

19.5%

31.9%

49.0%


Not Too Closely

6.1%

10.1%

19.6%


Not Attention At All

1.4%

3.0%

4.5%


2.      Thinking back to when the Elian case was going on, at that time what did you think
should happen to Elian Gonzalez? Did you think he should remain in the U.S. with his
relatives in Miami or return to Cuba to live with his father?
 
Local Cuban

Local Non-Cuban

National

Stay Here

78.5%

33.6%

28.3%


Return To Cuba

21.5%

66.4%

71.7%


3.      Now I want to ask about who will be the winners and losers coming out of the Elian situation,
regardless of whether you think they did the right thing. Were there people or groups who will be
HELPED in the long run by what they did in the Elian case, whether or not they did the right
thing? [IF YES] Who were they?
 
Local Cuban

Local Non-Cuban

National

Miami Relatives

5.4%

7.0%

2.3%


Alex Penelas

1.6%

3.0%

0.0%


Janet Reno

2.0%

2.3%

0.5%


Cuban/American Community

3.6%

5.8%

4.8%


Fidel Castro

9.6%

7.5%

4.3%


4.      And were there people or groups who will be HURT or WORSE off in the long run by what they
did in the Elian case, whether or not they did the right thing? [IF YES] Who were they?
 
Local Cuban

Local Non-Cuban

National

Miami Relatives

15.9%

15.8%

14.0%


INS

2.4%

2.0%

3.0%


Janet Reno

3.0%

2.5%

3.8%


Cuban/American Community

22.6%

21.5%

9.3%


Elian Gonzalez

16.4%

15.5%

12.3%


5.      In your opinion, were the interests of the Cuban-American community in Miami HELPED or
HURT by the events surrounding the Elian affair?
 
Local Cuban

Local Non-Cuban

National

Helped

18.0%

19.6%

15.4%


Hurt

82.0%

80.4%

84.6%


6.      Overall, do you think the media here in Miami presented the issues in the Elian case fairly and
objectively?
 
Local Cuban

Local Non-Cuban

Yes

62.3%

52.7%


No

37.7%

47.3%


7.      Do you think that the national news media presented the issues in the Elian case fairly
and objectively?
 
Local Cuban

Local Non-Cuban

National

Yes

40.1%

64.9%

50.7%


No

59.9%

35.1%

49.3%


8.      Would you say that the events associated with the Elian case have made you change
your opinion about U.S./Cuba relations, or did they not change your opinion?
 
Local Cuban

Local Non-Cuban

National

Yes

23.6%

20.7%

15.4%


No

76.4%

79.3%

84.6%


9.      Much has been said about the impact of the Elian case on ethnic relations in Miami. Do you think
that ethnic relations in the Miami area are worse, about the same, or better now than before the
Elian case?
 
Local Cuban

Local Non-Cuban

Worse

30.9%

37.0%


About the Same

59.6%

54.1%


Better

9.4%

9.0%



VOTING


1.      Are you a U.S. citizen?
 
Local Cuban

Local Non-Cuban

National

Yes

70.7%

70.2%

95.8%


No

29.3%

29.8%

4.3%


2.      Are you registered to vote?
 
Local Cuban

Local Non-Cuban

National

Yes

91.0%

90.0%

89.5%


No

9.0%

10.0%

10.5%


3.      Are you registered as a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or with some other
party?
 
Local Cuban

Local Non-Cuban

National

Republican

67.0%

23.9%

31.2%


Democrat

17.2%

56.0%

39.2%


Independent

14.4%

17.9%

24.1%


Other

1.4%

2.1%

5.5%


4.      Finally, I have three last questions on political issues: [IF REGISTERED TO VOTE] Could
you tell me whether you plan to vote for Al Gore or for George W. Bush in the
November election for president?
 
Local Cuban

Local Non-Cuban

National

Bush

63.8%

21.4%

27.9%


Gore

14.9%

49.1%

35.7%


Other

.9%

1.5%

1.7%


Undecided

15.8%

20.3%

30.1%


Donít know/no response

4.6%

7.7%

4.7%


5.      Suppose that on Election Day this year you could vote on key issues as well as
candidates. Please tell me whether you would vote for or against each one of the
following propositions: Would you vote for or against: re-establishing US diplomatic
relations with Cuba?
 
Local Cuban

Local Non-Cuban

National

For re-establishing US diplomatic relations with Cuba

38.2%

70.1%

82.1%


Against re-establishing US diplomatic relations with Cuba

61.8%

29.9%

17.9%


6.      Would you vote for or against: ending the US trade embargo with Cuba?
 
Local Cuban

Local Non-Cuban

National

For ending Embargo

37.5%

59.2%

64.7%


Against ending Embargo

62.5%

40.8%

35.3%