Cuban Research Institute
Institute for Public Opinion Research
Center for Labor Research and Studies
Florida International University

Preliminary results, FIU/Cuba Poll

2000 FIU/Cuba Poll: comparison of three samples

(VALID % ONLY)

POLICY QUESTIONS

CHANGE

1. Over the past few years, people have been talking about the possibility of political changes in
Cuba. When do you think that major political changes are likely to occur in Cuba? Would you
say within one year, in two to five years, in six to ten years, over ten years, or never?

	Local Cuban	Local Non-Cuban	National
Within 1 year	9.7%	9.1%	3.5%
in 2 to 5 years	33.1%	37.5%	35.3%
in 6 to 10 years	11.8%	15.6%	27.9%
over ten years	14.7%	16.6%	17.9%
never	28.2%	17.9%	12.1%
Don’t care	2.5%	3.3%	3.2%

SCALE OF QUESTIONS

2. First, allow companies to sell medicine to Cuba, do you strongly favor, mostly
favor, mostly oppose, or strongly oppose this?

	Local Cuban	Local Non-Cuban	National
Strongly Favor	44.3%	59.5%	38.4%
Mostly Favor	21.8%	28.9%	51.4%
Mostly Oppose	6.6%	3.6%	4.7%
Strongly Oppose	27.4%	8.0%	5.5%

3. Allowing U.S. companies to sell food to Cuba. Do you strongly favor, mostly favor,
mostly oppose, or strongly oppose this?

	Local Cuban	Local Non-Cuban	National
Strongly Favor	38.4%	56.9%	39.7%
Mostly Favor	17.9%	26.2%	46.6%
Mostly Oppose	8.9%	6.8%	7.0%
Strongly Oppose	34.8%	10.1%	6.7%

4. Supporting direct U.S. military action to overthrow the Cuban government. Do you
strongly favor, mostly favor, mostly oppose, or strongly oppose this?

	Local Cuban	Local Non-Cuban	National
Strongly Favor	49.4%	26.0%	8.1%
Mostly Favor	11.0%	13.9%	9.8%
Mostly Oppose	10.0%	16.1%	29.0%
Strongly Oppose	29.6%	44.0%	53.1%

5. Supporting military action by the exile community to overthrow the Cuban
Government. Do you strongly favor, mostly favor, mostly oppose, or strongly
oppose this?

	Local Cuban	Local Non-Cuban	National
Strongly Favor	55.5%	27.6%	5.8%
Mostly Favor	13.5%	17.7%	16.0%
Mostly Oppose	9.6%	18.2%	29.9%
Strongly Oppose	21.4%	36.5%	48.3%

6. Supporting human rights groups inside Cuba. Do you strongly favor, mostly favor,
mostly oppose, or strongly oppose this?

	Local Cuban	Local Non-Cuban	National
Strongly Favor	79.9%	66.5%	43.6%
Mostly Favor	14.7%	25.9%	39.9%
Mostly Oppose	1.9%	2.6%	11.2%
Strongly Oppose	3.5%	5.0%	5.3%

7. Establishing a national dialogue among Cuban exiles, Cuban dissidents, and
representatives of the Cuban government. Do you strongly favor, mostly favor,
mostly oppose, or strongly oppose this?

	Local Cuban	Local Non-Cuban	National
Strongly Favor	34.4%	49.0%	29.3%
Mostly Favor	17.2%	29.6%	50.9%
Mostly Oppose	11.8%	8.7%	12.0%
Strongly Oppose	36.6%	12.8%	7.8%

EMBARGO QUESTIONS

8. Prohibiting U.S companies from doing business with Cuba. Do you Strongly approve,
mostly approve, mostly disapprove, or strongly disapprove?

	Local Cuban	Local Non-Cuban	National
Strongly Approve	37.1%	23.5%	12.4%
Mostly Approve	10.5%	14.7%	22.4%
Mostly Disapprove	12.3%	14.8%	33.2%
Strongly Disapprove	40.1%	37.1%	31.9%

9. Overall, do you think the U.S. embargo of Cuba has worked very well, well, not very
well, or not at all?

	Local Cuban	Local Non-Cuban	National
Very Well	8.4%	4.5%	3.7%
Well	17.3%	13.4%	30.5%
Not Very Well	33.4%	42.9%	44.05
Not At All	40.9%	39.2%	21.8%

10. Do you favor or oppose continuing the U.S. embargo of Cuba?

	Local Cuban	Local Non-Cuban	National
Favor	62.4%	39.1%	42.6%
Oppose	37.6%	60.9%	57.4%

TRAVEL

11. Should unrestricted travel from the U.S. to Cuba be allowed or not?

	Local Cuban	Local Non-Cuban	National
Yes, allowed	52.8%	74.8%	63.2%
No, not allowed	47.2%	25.2%	36.8%

U.S. INVOLVMENT

12. Immediately after Fidel and Raul Castro leave power, do you think the United States
should be very involved in what happens politically in Cuba, somewhat involved, or not
involved at all?

	Local Cuban	Local Non-Cuban	National
Very involved	44.9%	26.6%	19.8%
Somewhat involved	33.5%	38.9%	50.7%
Not involved at all	21.6%	34.5%	29.5%

POLITICS AFTER FIDEL

13. Immediately after Fidel and Raul Castro leave power, which do you think would be
better: that the next president of Cuba be someone now living in Cuba, or be someone
from the exile community?

	Local Cuban	Local Non-Cuban	National
Someone in Cuba	48.0%	57.6%	60.2%
Exile Community	26.6%	28.8%	21.5%
Either	23.2%	9.8%	16.6%
Neither	2.3%	3.8%	1.7%

14. In your opinion, are there any Cuban-American politicians or individuals who will play a
major role in Cuba when the transition to a democratic system occurs?

	Local Cuban	Local Non-Cuban
Yes	64.7%	58.2%
No	35.3%	41.8%
Lincoln Diaz-Balart	41.7%	31.8%
Jorge Mas Santos	10.3%	14.1%
Alex Penelas	8.3%	35.3%

LOCAL IMPACT

1. In political elections, how important is a candidate's position on Cuba in determining
your vote - would you say it is very important, moderately important, not very
important, or not at all important?

	Local Cuban	Local Non-Cuban	National
Very Important	56.4%	32.3%	11.8%
Moderately Important	21.0%	30.1%	34.8%
Not Very Important	8.8%	14.5%	34.8%
Not At All Important	13.8%	23.0%	18.7%

2. In Miami right now, do you feel that all points of view on how to deal with the Castro
regime are being heard or do you feel that some views are not being heard?

	Local Cuban	Local Non-Cuban
All Views Are Heard	20.7%	32.5%
Some Views Are Not Heard	79.3%	67.5%

3. Some people argue that musical groups that come from Cuba, such as Los Van Van,
should not be allowed to perform in Miami. Do you agree or disagree with this opinion?

	Local Cuban	Local Non-Cuban
Agree	45.3%	14.6%
Disagree	54.7%	85.4%

4. Miami-Dade County had an ordinance that prevented the use of County funds to be
used for events that include artists from Cuba. Did you agree or disagree with this
policy?

	Local Cuban	Local Non-Cuban
Agree	48.5%	24.55
Disagree	51.5%	75.5%

IMMIGRATION

1. What if Cuba changed to a democratic form of government. How likely is it that you
would return to Cuba to live - would you say very likely, somewhat likely, not very
likely, or not at all likely?

	Local Cuban
Very Likely	21.9%
Somewhat Likely	17.0%
Not Very Likely	19.1%
Not At All Likely	42.0%

2. If you have to choose only one reason, do you think the primary reason people want to come
from Cuba to the U.S. is for economic reasons or is due to lack of freedom in Cuba?

	Local Cuban	Local Non-Cuban	National
Economic Reasons	25.5%	41.6%	33.2%
Lack of Freedom	53.9%	39.0%	45.0%
Insist on Both Being Equally Important	20.5%	19.4%	21.9%

3. Currently the United States allows 20,000 Cubans per year to come to the United States
to live. In general, do you agree or disagree with this migration policy?

	Local Cuban	Local Non-Cuban	National
Agree	80.1%	52.8%	54.9%
Disagree	19.9%	47.2%	45.1%

4. As it stands, Cubans who leave by raft or boat are sent back to Cuba if they are
intercepted before they reach U.S. soil. If they do reach U.S. soil they are allowed to
stay in the U.S. Do you agree or disagree with this policy?

	Local Cuban	Local Non-Cuban	National
Agree	33.9%	43.5%	37.4%
Disagree	66.1%	56.5%	62.6%

ELIAN GONZALEZ

1. Now I would like to ask you a few questions about the Elian Gonzalez situation. How
closely did you follow the news about the story? Did you follow it very closely,
somewhat closely, not very closely, or did you not pay any attention to it at all?

	Local Cuban	Local Non-Cuban	National
Very Closely	72.9%	55.0%	26.9%
Moderately Closely	19.5%	31.9%	49.0%
Not Too Closely	6.1%	10.1%	19.6%
Not Attention At All	1.4%	3.0%	4.5%

2. Thinking back to when the Elian case was going on, at that time what did you think
should happen to Elian Gonzalez? Did you think he should remain in the U.S. with his
relatives in Miami or return to Cuba to live with his father?

	Local Cuban	Local Non-Cuban	National
Stay Here	78.5%	33.6%	28.3%
Return To Cuba	21.5%	66.4%	71.7%

3. Now I want to ask about who will be the winners and losers coming out of the Elian situation,
regardless of whether you think they did the right thing. Were there people or groups who will be
HELPED in the long run by what they did in the Elian case, whether or not they did the right
thing? [IF YES] Who were they?

	Local Cuban	Local Non-Cuban	National
Miami Relatives	5.4%	7.0%	2.3%
Alex Penelas	1.6%	3.0%	0.0%
Janet Reno	2.0%	2.3%	0.5%
Cuban/American Community	3.6%	5.8%	4.8%
Fidel Castro	9.6%	7.5%	4.3%

4. And were there people or groups who will be HURT or WORSE off in the long run by what they
did in the Elian case, whether or not they did the right thing? [IF YES] Who were they?

	Local Cuban	Local Non-Cuban	National
Miami Relatives	15.9%	15.8%	14.0%
INS	2.4%	2.0%	3.0%
Janet Reno	3.0%	2.5%	3.8%
Cuban/American Community	22.6%	21.5%	9.3%
Elian Gonzalez	16.4%	15.5%	12.3%

5. In your opinion, were the interests of the Cuban-American community in Miami HELPED or
HURT by the events surrounding the Elian affair?

	Local Cuban	Local Non-Cuban	National
Helped	18.0%	19.6%	15.4%
Hurt	82.0%	80.4%	84.6%

6. Overall, do you think the media here in Miami presented the issues in the Elian case fairly and
objectively?

	Local Cuban	Local Non-Cuban
Yes	62.3%	52.7%
No	37.7%	47.3%

7. Do you think that the national news media presented the issues in the Elian case fairly
and objectively?

	Local Cuban	Local Non-Cuban	National
Yes	40.1%	64.9%	50.7%
No	59.9%	35.1%	49.3%

8. Would you say that the events associated with the Elian case have made you change
your opinion about U.S./Cuba relations, or did they not change your opinion?

	Local Cuban	Local Non-Cuban	National
Yes	23.6%	20.7%	15.4%
No	76.4%	79.3%	84.6%

9. Much has been said about the impact of the Elian case on ethnic relations in Miami. Do you think
that ethnic relations in the Miami area are worse, about the same, or better now than before the
Elian case?

	Local Cuban	Local Non-Cuban
Worse	30.9%	37.0%
About the Same	59.6%	54.1%
Better	9.4%	9.0%

VOTING

1. Are you a U.S. citizen?

	Local Cuban	Local Non-Cuban	National
Yes	70.7%	70.2%	95.8%
No	29.3%	29.8%	4.3%

2. Are you registered to vote?

	Local Cuban	Local Non-Cuban	National
Yes	91.0%	90.0%	89.5%
No	9.0%	10.0%	10.5%

3. Are you registered as a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or with some other
party?

	Local Cuban	Local Non-Cuban	National
Republican	67.0%	23.9%	31.2%
Democrat	17.2%	56.0%	39.2%
Independent	14.4%	17.9%	24.1%
Other	1.4%	2.1%	5.5%

4. Finally, I have three last questions on political issues: [IF REGISTERED TO VOTE] Could
you tell me whether you plan to vote for Al Gore or for George W. Bush in the
November election for president?

	Local Cuban	Local Non-Cuban	National
Bush	63.8%	21.4%	27.9%
Gore	14.9%	49.1%	35.7%
Other	.9%	1.5%	1.7%
Undecided	15.8%	20.3%	30.1%
Don’t know/no response	4.6%	7.7%	4.7%

5. Suppose that on Election Day this year you could vote on key issues as well as
candidates. Please tell me whether you would vote for or against each one of the
following propositions: Would you vote for or against: re-establishing US diplomatic
relations with Cuba?

	Local Cuban	Local Non-Cuban	National
For re-establishing US diplomatic relations with Cuba	38.2%	70.1%	82.1%
Against re-establishing US diplomatic relations with Cuba	61.8%	29.9%	17.9%

6. Would you vote for or against: ending the US trade embargo with Cuba?

	Local Cuban	Local Non-Cuban	National
For ending Embargo	37.5%	59.2%	64.7%
Against ending Embargo	62.5%	40.8%	35.3%