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1. When will major political change occur in Cuba?

1. Durante los últimos años, se ha hablado sobre la posibilidad de cambios políticos en Cuba. Cuándo piensa Ud. que sea probable que ocurran cambios políticos importantes? Diría Ud. que dentro de un año, entre dos y cinco años, entre seis a 10 años, en más de 10 años, o nunca?

1. Over the past few years, people have been talking about the possibility of political changes in Cuba. When do you think that major political changes are likely to occur in Cuba? Would you say within one year, in two to five years, in six to ten years, over ten years, or never?

Frequencies



1. When will major political change occur?

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Valid WITHIN ONE YEAR? 127 10.6 13.8 13.8
IN TWO TO FIVE YEARS 299 24.9 32.4 46.2
IN SIX TO TEN YEARS? 170 14.2 18.4 64.6
OVER TEN YEARS? 128 10.7 13.9 78.4
OR NEVER? 199 16.6 21.6 100.0
Total 923 76.9 100.0
Missing DON'T KNOW 252 21.0

DON'T CARE /DON'T WANT TO RESPOND 25 2.1

Total 277 23.1

Total 1200 100.0



Tables


When will major political change occur

7. Establish national dialogue? 9. Overall how well has embargo worked? Age
oppose favor not well well 18-29 30-44 45-64 65 and older
1. When will major political change occur? WITHIN ONE YEAR? 16% 11% 12% 18% 2% 7% 20% 23%
IN TWO TO FIVE YEARS 34% 33% 32% 33% 31% 33% 32% 33%
IN SIX TO TEN YEARS? 16% 21% 19% 17% 35% 22% 9% 13%
OVER TEN YEARS? 11% 15% 14% 12% 17% 20% 10% 9%
OR NEVER? 22% 19% 22% 20% 15% 17% 29% 22%


Tables


When will major political change occur

Gender of respondent high school graduate 39. In what year did you leave Cuba?
MALE FEMALE less than HS HS or more 1959 or before 1960-1969 1970-1979 1980-1989 1990-1997
1. When will major political change occur? WITHIN ONE YEAR? 13% 14% 27% 10% 23% 15% 20% 18% 10%
IN TWO TO FIVE YEARS 37% 29% 28% 34% 27% 35% 31% 34% 28%
IN SIX TO TEN YEARS? 23% 16% 10% 21% 13% 13% 15% 19% 14%
OVER TEN YEARS? 12% 15% 10% 15% 15% 11% 18% 8% 19%
OR NEVER? 16% 25% 24% 21% 23% 26% 16% 21% 28%


Tables


When will major political change occur

50. Are you a U.S. citizen? race income
citizen not citizen White Black or Mulatto under $20,000 $20-50,000 over $50,000
1. When will major political change occur? WITHIN ONE YEAR? 13% 16% 14% 12% 21% 11% 6%
IN TWO TO FIVE YEARS 34% 28% 31% 47% 31% 31% 38%
IN SIX TO TEN YEARS? 21% 12% 19% 12% 12% 19% 28%
OVER TEN YEARS? 13% 15% 14% 12% 13% 16% 15%
OR NEVER? 19% 28% 22% 16% 23% 23% 13%






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Revised July 21, 1997 by Hugh Gladwin